R-04 · Working draft
The constraint
doesn’t stand still.
A vintage-structured model of advanced-node semiconductor supply, with the binding constraint migrating across fabrication, equipment, and advanced packaging.
Explore the idea
Choose a stage to see how the limiting point can shift.
Advanced packaging is selected as the binding constraint.
Conceptual illustration. These selections do not represent calculated capacity, historical timing, or numerical results from the draft.
The model
Capacity,
across vintages.
System dynamics and a vintage-structured capacity model, built in Python.
Period modeled1990–2025 · 35 years
Technology-node vintages18
AuthorshipNiraj Gohil · sole author
StatusWorking draft · January 2026
7 pages. Not peer reviewed and not a preprint-server paper.
Read the working draft